For me, a number of tests are needed to feel confident to run the Superior 100. Race results are a good indicator, but I only have one finish to use, a sub-6 at the Afton 50K; RealEndurance suggests that this equates to a 31 hour finish at Superior, but that seems too optimistic. Had I finished Voyageur, I'd have a better idea, but things went wrong there - allergies, sleeplessness, trying something with a nutrition plan that failed, a tree falling on my head (yeah, that happened, though it sounds worse than it was), but mostly excruciating pain in my Achilles heels.
An old test I'd devised was: 1/3 the distance, 1/2 the climb, 1/4 the time. This came from when people ran Buck Hill 30 times, which is closed to runners this year. Half of Superior's climb would be 10100 feet, which is 103 times the Stillwater Main Street steps. I did 101 in 5.5 hours and the distance to make it 1/3 of Superior (34.5 miles) would get me to 8 hours; this gives Superior in 32 hours. Still optimistic. I then went to the (now technical, with washed out ruts) Afton Campground hill, which a topo map showed as 270 feet of climb in almost exactly one-half mile up, so 34 repeats would be the 1/3, 1/2, 1/4 needed - unfortunately, I did only 25 in 5.5 hours. I think, had I been rested or started earlier, I might've finished in 8 hours, which also points to 32 at Superior.
UltraSignup has me at 36:06, which seems right, or maybe a bit slow. They used to have me at 41 hours, which isn't even finishing.
They say the best predictor is what you think you can do. That's 34-35, depending.
I haven't figured out fueling. My heels hurt like hell. There's a ton of problems.
I will finish. "Have a reason to finish and do what you have to do to get there."
2 days ago