"There's only one hard and fast rule in running: sometimes you have to run one hard and fast."








Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Reasonable Goals for an Unreasonable Man

After a 5 year (5 YEAR!) lay-off of being unable to run, I'm about 2 minutes per mile slower than I was 10 years ago and, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be changing much. I have to face the fact that I am not the same person, much less the same runner, I was. Setting goals has been tricky.

UltraSignup has me ranked almost last (essentially unranked, from lack of races) for the Superior 100 and people have been asking me what I expect to do there. The old records there set me at 66+/-3%, which gives Superior in 32:00 +/- 1:30. From RealEndurnce, 32 at Superior suggests Afton in 5:00+/-0:30. Afton in 5 for me requires a marathon in 3:33. Using my old check of Superior= marathonx9, we have 3:33x9= 32:00.

Seems reasonable.

If one age grades my best marathon (2:42:41 at age 20), differing sites give 3:04-3:10 at age 54/55. Plugging in that number, I get Afton in about the over-50 course record of 4:27:27. That time, in turn, gives Superior in 28:30.

So that's probably the upper limit.

Currently, I could run a marathon a little under 4 hours, or Afton in 5:30 and Superior in 36:00.

So that's probably the bottom limit.

ahem.

Then there's the Larry Ochsendorf records. Larry, at age 50/51 ran the Twin Cities Marathon in 2:50, Afton in 3:55 and Superior in 20:40. Those trail records aren't official anymore because the courses have changed (become harder), but current course times would be about 4:05 and 22:00.

Not so reasonable.


4 comments:

Olga King said...

Good luck to you. I am coming on 4 years of sporadic to no running in a slow poke style. But I do hope to come back.

Double said...

Larry the Legend.

SteveQ said...

Hey, Dave - I only met Larry once, at the Afton race. He seemed a quiet and humble guy. What do you know about him? I'm guessing he started training at about age 47 and retired about age 52. I see he's still in the local phone directory.

Double said...

I don't know Larry. Though those times came across as pretty stout to me.