After a 5 year (5 YEAR!) lay-off of being unable to run, I'm about 2 minutes per mile slower than I was 10 years ago and, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be changing much. I have to face the fact that I am not the same person, much less the same runner, I was. Setting goals has been tricky.
UltraSignup has me ranked almost last (essentially unranked, from lack of races) for the Superior 100 and people have been asking me what I expect to do there. The old records there set me at 66+/-3%, which gives Superior in 32:00 +/- 1:30. From RealEndurnce, 32 at Superior suggests Afton in 5:00+/-0:30. Afton in 5 for me requires a marathon in 3:33. Using my old check of Superior= marathonx9, we have 3:33x9= 32:00.
If one age grades my best marathon (2:42:41 at age 20), differing sites give 3:04-3:10 at age 54/55. Plugging in that number, I get Afton in about the over-50 course record of 4:27:27. That time, in turn, gives Superior in 28:30.
So that's probably the upper limit.
Currently, I could run a marathon a little under 4 hours, or Afton in 5:30 and Superior in 36:00.
So that's probably the bottom limit.
Then there's the Larry Ochsendorf records. Larry, at age 50/51 ran the Twin Cities Marathon in 2:50, Afton in 3:55 and Superior in 20:40. Those trail records aren't official anymore because the courses have changed (become harder), but current course times would be about 4:05 and 22:00.
Not so reasonable.
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