"There's only one hard and fast rule in running: sometimes you have to run one hard and fast."

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Last Post Until FANS

I've done a little number crunching, trying to come up with how many miles I think I can do at FANS. The results: 96, 104, 105, 107, 107, 113, 118. Seven formulas suggesting 107, give or take. The problem is that I'm basing everything on previous races, which were on tough trails and were much much shorter. Does my lack of ability on trails make up for my lack of ability after 50 miles?

They say that after one's most recent marathon time, the best predictor is how many miles you think you can do. The favorite formula here is 320- marathon time in minutes = miles in 24 hrs. My last marathon was bad (and a long time ago), but still gives 124 miles. What do I think I can do? Whatever it takes to stay ahead of Julie Berg!

I'm finally over the sinus infection that followed the cold I had and my left ankle is holding up nicely (I tested it on some trails). I had some hamstring problems from running hard downhill, but that seems to be clearing up as well.

Most importantly, in my personal life, I'm having a good week. I'm happy.

My prediction: 109.

Of course, I've not been close on any prediction yet. Let's hope I'm underestimating for once - the record's 136.01

Oh, and I predict Julie's going to win the women's division this year.
Favorite new joke: The latest version of Guitar Hero is way too hard. All the songs are by Les Paul and Robert Fripp.

[It's only funny to guitarists.]


brent said...

Good luck at FANS...you are running in my back yard so I give you permission to go crazy on the course and meet your predicted miles. I would come out and cheer but I will be running the KM100 with Matt. Have fun!

keith said...

Aw, m a n!! You're going to rock it. After all of your trail races, you're probably going to feel like a steam engine out there!

RunWesty said...

Best of luck, I think you will have a very good day.

I wouldn't pay attention to the formula as if I did the math correct after my last marathon I would need to run -12 miles. I know I could do a lot more than that, so I think you will do 115 or more.

Julie B said...

Oh man, the pressure is on. I can't believe you are picking me. I know, I know, you say I underestimate myself. I'll make sure you stay in front of me :)

Helen said...

Best of Luck Saturday! Can you run in the opposite direction (or backwards?) every so often to avoid ITB or knee issues?!

Anonymous said...

Bartkid sed,

>All the songs are by Les Paul and Robert Fripp.

Better to be present with a bad note than absent from a good note.

SteveQ said...

I find it amusing that after saying I think I can do 109, the poll suddenly shifted to higher numbers. Thanks for the votes of confidence!

Kel said...

Have a great run Steve! Hopefully the heat, humidity, hail, etc won't slow you down :)

Andrew said...

Best luck to all your connective tissue and associated parts.

Honestly this seems like a race you can really lock in on.